Retire before 65 and you face a gap: years without employer coverage and before Medicare. This estimates what bridging that gap with an ACA marketplace plan could cost — after the subsidies your income may qualify you for.
Medicare eligibility starts at 65. Retire before then and you lose employer coverage with no government program to replace it — a gap of months or years you have to fund yourself. For someone retiring at 55, that's a full decade of buying your own health insurance, and it's one of the most underestimated costs in early retirement planning.
The sticker price of a marketplace plan for a couple in their early sixties can be alarming — often well over a thousand dollars a month. But ACA subsidies cap your premium at a percentage of income, and the lower your taxable income, the larger the subsidy. This is the crucial insight for early retirees: because you often control which accounts you draw from, you can shape your taxable income and the subsidy that follows.
Here's where it gets interesting: the same low-income years that maximize your ACA subsidy are also the best years for Roth conversions. But a conversion raises your taxable income, which can shrink your subsidy. Balancing these two — cheap health insurance now versus lower taxes later — is one of the genuinely hard puzzles of early retirement, and it's exactly the kind of tradeoff worth modeling carefully rather than guessing.