See how long your savings last at a given withdrawal amount, compare it against the classic 4% rule, and find a rate you can sustain. All figures use real returns, so they're in today's dollars.
The 4% rule comes from the Trinity Study: withdraw 4% of your portfolio the first year, adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year after, and historically the money lasted at least 30 years across almost every market period. It's a useful anchor, but it's a guideline built on past data — not a promise about the future.
Three things drive the answer: how much you've saved, how much you withdraw, and your return after inflation. This calculator holds the real return constant and subtracts your withdrawal each year until the balance runs out. Lowering the withdrawal or earning a higher real return both stretch the timeline — often dramatically.
A constant return is easy to understand but hides the real danger: a market drop in your first few retirement years. Withdrawing from a falling portfolio can permanently shorten how long it lasts, even if the long-run average is fine. That's why a Monte Carlo or historical analysis gives a fuller picture than any single-rate estimate.